Threats to democracy October 31, 2022

Project Leads: Brendan Nyhan (Dartmouth College), John Carey (Dartmouth College), Olivier Bergeron-Boutin (McGill University) Original publisher: Bright Line Watch

Threats to democracy

At a time of potential risks to American democratic norms and institutions, we report the results of a survey of 682 experts in political science. The survey was originally conducted by Bright Line Watch, which has generously shared their results with us. A synopsis of the results can be found at their survey results page.

The expert email list was constructed from the faculty list of U.S. institutions represented in the online program of the 2016 American Political Science Association conference.

Primary results

On a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 is least democratic and 100 is most democratic, experts gave the United States a rating of 67, consistent with past surveys and behind Canada (84) and Great Britain (76). Experts felt that the US political system could soon become less democratic, dropping to 60 in 5 years.
A large majority of experts (94%) thought former President Trump committed a crime in his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House, and 85% thought he should be prosecuted. The small fraction who thought he committed a crime but should not be prosecuted indicated several reasons for their response, most commonly that a prosecution could encourage future administrations to prosecute their opponents.
Large majorities of experts rated certain recent events as 'Abnormal'. The events rated most abnormal were (1) a large number of statewide Republican candidates refusing to acknowledge the legitimacy of the 2020 elections and (2) the FBI finding documents at Mar-a-Lago related to foreign nations' nuclear capabilities.
Experts estimated a 70% probability that in at least two statewide elections in 2022, Republican candidates who lose the election would refuse to concede defeat.
Experts estimated a 65% probability that the next Supreme Court vacancy would not be filled unless the Senate and presidency are held by the same party.

Question 1

How well do the following statements describe the United States as of today?

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Question 2

On a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 is least democratic and 100 is most democratic, how would you rate the political system of the United States as of today?

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Question 3

Using the same 0 to 100 scale, what rating would you expect to give the political system of the United States in 5 years?

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Question 4

Using the same 0 to 100 scale, what rating would you expect to give the political system of the United States in 10 years?

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Question 5

Now using the same 0 to 100 scale, where 0 is least democratic and 100 is most democratic, how would you rate the political systems of the following countries?

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Question 6

In thinking about former President Trump’s efforts to change the result of the 2020 presidential election, do you think he committed a crime, or not?

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Question 7

Do you think that former President Trump should be prosecuted for his efforts to change the result of the 2020 presidential election?

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Question 8

You indicated that you believe former President Trump committed a crime in relation to his efforts to change the result of the 2020 presidential election, but that you oppose prosecuting him. Please select the statement that best represents why you oppose a prosecution in this case:

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Question 9

In thinking about former President Trump's role in the events of January 6, 2021, do you think he committed a crime, or not?

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Question 10

Do you think that former President Trump should be prosecuted for his role in the events of January 6, 2021?

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Question 11

You indicated that you believe former President Trump committed a crime in relation to his role in the events of January 6, 2021, but that you oppose prosecuting him. Please select the statement that best represents why you oppose a prosecution in this case:

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Question 12

In thinking about former President Trump's handling of classified documents after leaving the White House, do you think he committed a crime, or not?

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Question 13

Do you think that former President Trump should be prosecuted for his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House?

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Question 14

You indicated that you believe former President Trump committed a crime in relation to his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House, but that you oppose prosecuting him. Please select the statement that best represents why you oppose a prosecution in this case:

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Question 15

Rate the following events on how normal or abnormal they were, where 'Normal' is business as usual for a presidential administration, like vetoing a bill or appointing a cabinet, and 'Abnormal' is highly unusual for American democracy, like Iran-Contra or ordering newspapers to halt the publication of the Pentagon Papers.

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Question 16

Rate the following events on how important they were, where 'Unimportant' has limited or no consequences for the federal government, like the first family's pets or the menu for a state dinner, and 'Important' creates a significant or lasting change, like the establishment of Social Security or the Voting Rights Act.

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Question 17

Assess the likelihood of the following events occurring:

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Question 18

In this section of the survey, we ask you to assess a series of events that may materialize in the future. What impact (if any) would each have on American democracy?

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